Previous PartHere we are, final part of the series. Today we will be discussing Balon's death.TBH I think, how Balon's death affected the plan is a bit of a no brainer, I mean he's dead, there really isn't much more to say.I could discuss who exactly knew the entirety of the plan but I don't see much point in that either. Once Balon is dead everything turns to succession, so it doesn't really matter. For what it's worth, the only person who I think might know the whole plan is Rodrik the Reader.Instead I'm going to talk about what I feel is a frequently overlooked aspect of Balon's death and posit a new (or at least one I haven't heard before) theory. When did Balon actually die?Firstly, the timing of Balon's death has very little material effect on the manner of his death. Although, I will suggest a theory on this, it really is far from conclusive.In our story we're told that Balon died the day before Euron arrived at Pyke, which is incredibly suspicious, but we do have some anecdotal evidence to suggest that he died earlier than this. When they found his body crabs had eaten his eyes. Not much to base a theory on but when we actually think about it, we don't really have anything more than a maester's word that Balon died the day prior to Euron's arrival, and Euron almost certainly had time to coerce that maester.So let's build a time frame here, and look at the earliest that Balon could have died.The last definitive account we have of Balon being alive comes from Aeron in AFFC. Aeron had seen his eldest brother not a moon's turn pastSo we have a window of about a month in which Balon could have died.At this point we have to start thinking about timelines. I've taken mine from hereAeron also mentions Balon's health. However, it's very noticeable that Aeron does not mention Theon at that point. Why is this important? Well I don't care how many thousands of leagues under the sea you think Aeron's brain is, there is no way in hell a parent can die so soon after the assumed death of a child for it not to be mentioned here.Later on in the chapter Aeron does wonder if Theon still lives but there is absolutely nothing to suggest that word of the burning of Winterfell has reached the iron Islands yet. Evidence that Theon killed Bran and Rickon obviously has but not the fall of Winterfell.So let's start to build my theory here. Balon died or was incapacitated by a heart attack, brought on by news of Theon's presumed death at Winterfell.Unfortunately though, it's very difficult to find evidence to support a heart attack in general. Aeron believes Balon to be good health, however, it's also suggested that Pyke is an unhealthy place to live, and the family history, so many of Quellon's sons died young, that while Balon appears perfectly healthy, it's hard to imagine he fully escaped any genetic issues.Now your probably wondering why I've put so much effort into establishing a timeline when Balon could still have died from his heart attack the day prior to Euron's arrival. And this is because it doesn't actually add up, we have strong evidence that Euron arrived at Pyke prior to word of the burning of Winterfell. We're told that Euron drowns Sawane Botley for saying that Theon was the rightful heir.There is however news that we do know reached Pyke that may have caused Balon's heart attack, Theon's killing of Bran and Rickon.We also have some evidence that there may be a conspiracy. Euron's murder of Sawane Botley is actually a little out of character. He's generally more thoughtful, and often more subtlety cruel. Induced drowning though is actually a method for obtaining information IRL, it's called waterboarding.So why the conspiracy? Why not just tell the truth?Well, like everything else to do with the Ironborn, it all comes down to succession.Prior to Euron's return, we have three candidates to succeed Balon, Victarion, Asha and Theon. Victarion has the bulk of the army, Asha has Balon's blessing but little else, Theon has the right. Both Asha and Victarion are pretty stubborn. Had the truth emerged it would likely be a race between Asha and Victarion to crown themselves first and likely mean the death of the other. However, since both have military assets at their disposal, a civil war can not be discounted. The best way to ensure that this is avoided would seem to be to crown Theon. He has right, and this would most likely force the other to at least accept him in the short term. Hence, the most likely goal of the conspiracy would be to keep Balon's death a secret until Theon returns from Winterfell.As to the extent of the conspiracy, I'd posit that Rodrik the Reader is probably the brains behind it, but there's no evidence to support that.And that's the theory. It's a long way from being conclusive, but IMO at least it holds up as well as most of the other ones out there.TL;DR Balon died of a Theon induced heart attackSo that is pretty much it on Balon from me, although I will likely post a summary up at some point, just to tidy everything up in one post and maybe touch on one or two things I have not spoken about.I do though intend to keep posting, and the next thing I will likely look at is Euron and Aeron.Thanks for reading via /r/asoiaf https://ift.tt/3jWclTI
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